Live (XAU/USD)
Our Assessment – October 31, 2025 (Gold Price Analysis, USA)
On October 31, 2025, based on our current market research the following key drivers are critical for the gold price (Spot XAU/USD & COMEX futures). We explain why they’re relevant, how strongly the effect is likely to play out tomorrow, and which scenario we expect through the New York trading close (≈ 16:00 ET / 21:00 CET). The intraday range and reference levels are factored in.
1) Monetary Policy & Real Yields (Fed)
Feature: Expected Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts and the level of real yields (nominal yield minus inflation) are the dominant driver for gold. Declining real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold and support the price. (FRED)
Status/Trigger for tomorrow:
- FOMC decision (Oct 29): A -25 bp cut to 3.75–4.00 %; Chair Jerome Powell indicated a further cut in December is not guaranteed—“dovish but cautious” tone. Global follow-up cuts (HKMA, GCC) bolster easing narrative though the path remains data-dependent. (Reuters)
- 10-year TIPS (DFII10): Most recent ~1.71 % (Oct 28). Elevated compared to early year levels, but softening since end-Sept → headwind diminishing, tail-risk of a yield spike remains. (FRED)
Assessment for tomorrow: Strong positive net driver, provided real yields don’t spike.
2) U.S. Dollar (DXY) & FX Rates
Feature: A weaker U.S. dollar makes gold cheaper in USD terms for non-USD investors; dollar strength is a drag. (MarketWatch)
Status/Trigger for tomorrow:
The
DXY is trading around
~99.5 today (recent days’ range ~98-100). A
range-trade is likely tomorrow; a breakout depends on fresh Fed interpretation/data.
Mildly supportive, yet
vulnerable to reversals. (MarketWatch)
3) Inflation Expectations & Macro Outlook
Feature: Gold acts as an inflation and risk hedge; higher inflation expectations or a softening economy boost demand. Declining real yields further support. (Reuters)
Assessment for tomorrow: Neutral to slightly positive – no major U.S. data releases before market close post-Fed, focus remains on re-pricing of the policy path. (Reuters)
4) Geopolitics & Safe-Haven Flows
Feature: Geopolitical tensions or policy risks trigger safe-haven demand; resolution dampens that effect. (Reuters)
Assessment for tomorrow: Secondary and binary catalyst – can burst the range intraday, although the baseline remains macro-driven (real yields & FX).
5) Central Bank & Institutional Demand (ETFs/Funds)
Feature: Central bank purchases and ETF inflows form the structural base for the bull market. (World Gold Council)
Status/Trigger for tomorrow:
- Q3 2025 (WGC): Record quarter – ETF inflows 222 t / ≈ US$26 billion, total quarterly demand 1,313 t (+3 % yr/yr); official sector purchases up ~10 % (~220 t). (World Gold Council)
- Regional: India ETFs hit record AUM (~US$10 billion) in Sept; strong passive inflows in Q4 season ahead. (Reuters)
Assessment for tomorrow: Structurally strongly positive; tactically supports dips.
6) Physical Demand in Asia & Seasonality
Feature: Premiums/discounts in China/India reflect physical demand depth and influence price stability. (Reuters)
Status/Trigger for tomorrow:
China has shown
multi-year low discounts vs. London – indicating price-constrained retail demand; India’s festival season gives some seasonal support but price sensitivity remains. Net:
Neutral to slightly dampening for the spot momentum. (Reuters)
7) Technicals, Positioning & Profit-Taking
Feature: After the parabolic run to the all-time high ~$4,381 (Oct 20), sharp pullbacks into value zones are typical. Key zones: $3.85k–$3.90k (support) and $4.00k–$4.05k (resistance/pivot). (Investing.com)
Today’s references (for tomorrow):
- XAU/USD trading range today: ~$3,916–$4,026; close near ~$4.00k.
- CME GCZ25 futures: last quoted basis vs. spot suggests ~$4.00k pivot remains valid. (Investing.com)
Base Scenario for Tomorrow (Oct 31)
(through 16:00 ET / 21:00 CET)
- Spot range: $3,930 – $3,990/oz, bias: sideways to slightly positive, staying below/around $4,000 unless USD weakens and 10-year TIPS remain ≤ ~1.75 %. (MarketWatch)
- Bear case (~30 %): Slide to $3,900, stop-runs test $3,850 (“flush” into support zone) if USD rebounds or TIPS spike.
- Bull case (~20 %): Re-claim $4,000 + close above it on 1-hour candle → target $4.02–$4.05k (upper value zone), especially if USD drops into the high-98s.
Key Levels (Spot):
- Support: $3,900 → $3,850
- Resistance: $4,000 → $4,035/40 (intraday highs/pivot). (Investing.com)
Tactical Implementation (Not investment advice)
- Trend-Aligned Buys: Buy pullbacks $3.90–$3.92k, as long as DXY shows no breakout and 10-year TIPS stay soft (≤ ~1.75 %). Set risk stop < $3.85k.
- Breakout Strategy: Only consider long above $4,000 with 1-hour candle close > $4,000 → target $4.02–$4.05k; else beware of a “bull trap.” (cmegroup.com)
- Event/Headline Trades: Geopolitical or macro headlines are binary – size accordingly and tie risk to USD and real-yield triggers.
Sources (accessed today)
- Fed / Tone: Reuters coverage of the Fed decision and tone. (Reuters)
- Real yields: FRED series DFII10 (10-yr TIPS). (FRED)
- Dollar index: MarketWatch DXY charts & data. (MarketWatch)
- Gold spot/futures: Investing.com XAU/USD live & historic data; CME Group Gold futures quotes. (Investing.com)
- Demand flows: World Gold Council – Gold Demand Trends Q3 2025 (ETF inflows, official demand). (World Gold Council)
- Asia physical demand: Reuters on India ETFs and China discounts. (Reuters)
Expert Team Evaluation (October 31, 2025)
Macro anchor unchanged: The real yield ↔ USD axis remains the trade runway – the Fed cut provides tailwind, but Powell’s “December not guaranteed” check prevents froth. Structural buyers (central banks/ETFs) form a demand cushion; the Asian physical demand elasticity (China discount case) holds back runaway upside. Tactically, we are leaning toward buying dips into the $3.90–3.92k zone, contingent on DXY < 100 and 10-year TIPS ≤ ~1.75 %; breakout campaigns only above $4,000 with time confirmation. Risk map: yield spike / USD reversal or a headline shock (safe-haven knee-jerk). Bottom line: Expect range trade $3.93–3.99k with a slight positive bias; the upside trigger is USD weakness combined with stable or falling real yields.
Note: This is not investment advice. Always make decisions based on your own risk tolerance.
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